Thursday, April 5, 2007

New Poll Buzz

Poll: Majority oppose Harrison Square
http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/newssentinel/17033609.htm

From the article:

"Fifty-four percent opposed the project, 32 percent supported it, and 15 percent weren’t sure. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percent."

"According to the Kelty campaign, “nearly 9,000 Fort Wayne residents were contacted.”
Actually, 8,713 calls were placed and 401 interviews were completed, according to Zogby spokesman Fritz Wenzel. The poll only interviewed registered voters who said they were likely to vote in May’s Republican primary, he said."

"Kelty said Thursday said he never contacted Zogby, and local businesspeople he said funded the poll gave him the results. Kelty said he had no knowledge of the poll until the results came to his attention. He would not say who funded the poll, nor would Wenzel, due to a confidentiality agreement. Wenzel would not comment on how much the poll cost."

"Other questions also were included in the poll, Wenzel said, and the people who funded the poll are expected to release those and the results soon."

"City Councilman and project proponent Sam Talarico, R-at large, said Kelty’s press conference and subsequent press release shows Kelty is using the poll to grasp for momentum as the primary nears."

"Kelty said he assumed all likely primary voters were polled because Democrats, Republicans and independents were included in the breakdown. But in Indiana, a person can consider themselves a Democrat or independent and vote in the Republican primary."

Mayor Richard Responds to Harrison Square Poll
Link (WANE.com video)

25 comments:

barranda said...

Taking the poll at face value, the results are certainly interesting.

Only 15.2% of Independents were opposed to the project mainly due to financing.

Overall, only 18.4% were opposed mainly due to the public financing. That's good news to me. The financing issue is certainly the most legitimate reason to veto the project. Apparently that's not a big concern, according to this poll.

I would think (or at least hope) that the city council (at least the remaining swing votes) is past the discussion of why we need a downtown stadium.

Anonymous said...

I heard Kelty commissioned this poll. Isnt it amazing that Kelty is running his campaign as the "Candidate of the Young People." He is the worst thing that could happen to the younger generations in this community.'

A poll is only as good as its methodology. However, Kelty's poll indicates that opposition has dropped significantly as more and more people hear more of the details.

Chris W.

Anonymous said...

I just received a call from the News Sentinel regarding this poll. I was told that Kelty did not pay for the poll but that Kelty would not divulge who paid to have the poll conducted.

I personally think it would be ridiculous to publish poll results without knowing the source of the poll.

However, if they do post the results, it shows opposition dropping since the newspaper poll.

Sam T.

Anonymous said...

I think the issue to keep in mind here is that the poll is certainly somewhat questionable-

The second question REQUIRES a negative answer. YOU HAVE TO disklike something.

Overall- opposition is dropping.

Anonymous said...

I have been told (from reliable sources) that the poll was of only Likely Republican Voters and while 9,000 calls were made, only 402 people took part. If this is accurate, then Matt Kelty's press release is shamefully misleading. Any reader of his presss release would believe that 9,000 people took part and that it was representative of the entire population (why did he leave out the # of participants). If I am wrong on this, I will eat my words, but I am confident that the above is an accurate description of the polling methods.

Sam T.

Anonymous said...

Sam you have already been wrong a couple of times today, including your assertion that Kelty used a poll done in late March to determine a position he took months earlier. Why don't you stifle your desire to trash Kelty and wait until you know some facts before pontificating. Look at the poll results. They break down by Republican, Democrat and Independent.

You're the one who's starting to sound misleading.

Anonymous said...

Even if a poll is done of only Likely Republican Voters, they are bound to pick up on some democrats and some independents (just not many). Like I said, I will come back and eat my words if incorrect.

We will see.

Sam T.

Anonymous said...

Kelty sure does sound determined to stop Harrison Square and build a Mega Hardware Store instead.

Anonymous said...

If Matt Kelty was doing some polling, dont you think he would have asked the typical "horserace" question between he and Nelson Peters? If so, why isnt he releasing those numbers? Could they be a little ugly?

Chris

Anonymous said...

Why don't you ask your informed source Chris? You were wrong about Kelty commissioning the poll and wrong about Kelty running as the "Candidate of the Young People." Go for the trifecta.

But, hey, thanks for keeping the focus on Kelty.

Anonymous said...

Has anyone in the race stepped up and fully supported the project? That's who I am voting for. Is there anyone like that? Doesn't sound like I'll be voting for Kelty...

Anonymous said...

I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Kelty was involved. He probably indirectly commissioned the poll and in parallel to its results released his opposition to try and attract voters. This guy is a show boat, a facade. I would sure not like going to bed each night knowing how much the young generation hates you.

Anonymous said...

Sam,

I spoke with Zogby, you are correct on the numbers.

I am not sure about how many Democrats vs Republicans were polled.

Anonymous said...

Sam,

I spoke with Zogby, you are correct on the numbers.

I am not sure about how many Democrats vs Republicans were polled.

Anonymous said...

Sorry to disappoint you anonymous. No need to eat my words. Please visit News Sentinel website to learn more about the misleading press release

Sam

Anonymous said...

Wow, talk about damage control by Kelty in that article

Anonymous said...

"He would not say who funded the poll, nor would Wenzel, due to a confidentiality agreement. Wenzel would not comment on how much the poll cost."

So someone paid thousands of dollars for a poll, gave the resuts to Kelty and won't admit they paid for it?

barranda said...

doh!

Anonymous said...

So our mayor said " I can get any result I want on a poll" - somehow, I believe HE could - not sure about others though.

Anonymous said...

Sam-

Apparently 36% of the respondents to the poll identified themselves as non-republicans. Does that meet your notion of "not many"?

Jeff Pruitt said...

"“The poll that’s more valuable to me is from the group that met at the library,” citing an unscientific poll taken by Young Leaders Northeast Indiana at a forum last month. About 80 percent of the 263 people indicated support for the mixed-use development."

Come on Mr Mayor. There's no need to embarrass yourself like the Kelty campaign seems to have done. THAT poll was even less scientific than the one in question. Of course I suppose a cynic would say that it certainly IS more valuable to you since it gives you the outcome you want...

Anonymous said...

Matt Kelty has no shot to win the mayoral election, so anything he does I just ignore

Anonymous said...

Anonymous, you are wrong again. Zogby represenative (See news sentinel) said they polled only those people likely to vote in the republican primary. This is the pool they started with. From this pool, a certain amount identified themselves as non-republicans. This is not the same as starting with a pool of ALL residents or ALL registered voters. You know that so stop playing dumb.

Sam

Anonymous said...

Can anyone confirm that only LAN line respondents were contacted for the poll ? I am a cell-phone only user since 2002. I'm sure there are a number people in our city who no longer have a LAN line and are cell phone users only. Was this taken into consideration ?

Anonymous said...

WHO paid for the poll will be public record soon enough.

Kelty will have to declare it as an "in-kind" contribution- and will have to name those that paid for it.

The report must be filed by April 20 at noon.

Let's hear it for campaign finance laws!